Pimco Says ‘Fear Not,’ Weak Dollar Will Spur Growth

Via Bloomberg:

Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar is poised to fall and the decline may help spur the U.S. economy.

“Fear not the falling dollar,” Scott Mather, head of global portfolio management at Pimco, wrote in an article on the company’s Web site. “A gradually weakening dollar may help heal the U.S. economy” by encouraging demand for the nation’s exports, he wrote.

“There are few viable alternatives,” Mather wrote. “No other currency offers the size and liquidity — not to mention the political and legal stability — necessary to match the dollar as reserve currency of choice.”

“Deflation is a bigger near-term threat than inflation…”

Read the full article here

Martin Wolf: Why China’s Exchange Rate Policy Concerns Us

Via FT:

We can make four obvious replies to Mr Wen. First, whatever the Chinese may feel, the degree of protectionism directed at their exports has been astonishingly small, given the depth of the recession. Second, the policy of keeping the exchange rate down is equivalent to an export subsidy and tariff, at a uniform rate – in other words, to protectionism. Third, having accumulated $2,273bn in foreign currency reserves by September, China has kept its exchange rate down, to a degree unmatched in world economic history. Finally, China has, as a result, distorted its own economy and that of the rest of the world. Its real exchange rate is, for example, no higher than in early 1998 and has depreciated by 12 per cent over the past seven months, even though China has the world’s fastest-growing economy and largest current account surplus.

Do these policies matter for China and the world? Yes, is the answer. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada, notes in a recent speech, that “large and unsustainable current account imbalances across major economic areas were integral to the build-up of vulnerabilities in many asset markets. In recent years, the international monetary system failed to promote timely and orderly economic adjustments.” He is right.

Read the full article here

Rosenberg: U.S. Unemployment Rate Headed For 12-13%

Rosie (of Gluskin Sheff) shares his insights on unemployment:

There are serious structural issues undermining the U.S. labour market as companies continue to adjust their order books, production schedules and staffing requirements to a semi-permanently impaired credit backdrop. The bottom line is that the level of credit per unit of GDP is going to be much, much lower in the future than has been the case in the last two decades. While we may be getting close to a bottom in terms of employment, the jobless rate is very likely going to be climbing much further in the future due to the secular dynamics within the labour market that need to be discussed:

• For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit.
• During this two-year recession, employment has declined a record 8 million. Even in percent terms, this is a record in the post-WWII experience.
• Looking at the split, there were 11 million full-time jobs lost (usually we see three million in a garden-variety recession), of which three million were shifted into part-time work.
• There are now a record 9.3 million Americans working part-time because they have no choice. In past recessions, that number rarely got much above six million.
• The workweek was sliced this cycle from 33.8 hours to a record low 33.0 hours — the labour input equivalent is another 2.4 million jobs lost. So when you count in hours, it’s as if we lost over 10 million jobs this cycle. Remarkable.
• The number of permanent job losses this cycle (unemployed but not for temporary purposes) increased by a record 6.2 million. In fact, well over half of the total unemployment pool of 15.7 million was generated just in this past recession alone. A record 5.6 million people have been unemployed for at least six months (this number rarely gets above two million in a normal downturn) which is nearly a 36% share of the jobless ranks (again, this rarely gets above 20%). Both the median (18.7 weeks) and average (26.9 weeks) duration of unemployment have risen to all-time highs.
• The longer it takes for these folks to find employment (and now they can go on the government benefit list for up to two years) the more difficult it is going to be to retrain them in the future when labour demand does begin to pick up. Not only that, but we have a youth unemployment rate now approaching a record 20%. Again, this is going to prove to be very problematic for employers in the future who are going to be looking for skills and experience when the boomers finally do begin to retire.

In a nutshell, to be calling for a 12.0-13.0% unemployment rate is meaningless except that it is very likely going to be a headline grabber. The most inclusive definition of them all, the U6 measure of the unemployment rate, which includes all forms of unemployed and underemployed, is already at 17.5%. The posted U3 jobless rate that everyone focuses on is at 10.2% (though if it weren’t for the drop in the labour force participation rate, to 65.1% from 66.0% a year ago, the unemployment rate would be testing the post-WWII high of 10.8% right now). The gap between the U6 and the official U3 rate is at a record 7.3 percentage points. Normally this spread is between 3-4 percentage points and ultimately we will see a reversion to the mean, to some unhappy middle where the U6 may be closer to 15.0-16.0% and the posted jobless rate closer to 12%. This will undoubtedly be a major political issue, especially in the context of a mid-term elections and the GOP starting to gain some electoral ground.

Think about it. We haven’t yet hit bottom on employment but that will happen at some point. Employment is not going to zero, of that we can assure you. But when we do start to see the economic clouds part in a more decisive fashion, what are employers likely to do first? Well, naturally they will begin to boost the workweek and just getting back to pre-recession levels would be the same as hiring more than two million people. Then there are the record number of people who got furloughed into part-time work and again, they total over nine million, and these folks are not counted as unemployed even if they are working considerably fewer days than they were before the credit crunch began.

So the business sector has a vast pool of resources to draw from before they start tapping into the ranks of the unemployed or the typical 100,000-125,000 new entrants into the labour force when the economy turns the corner. Hence the unemployment rate is going to very likely be making new highs long after the recession is over — perhaps even years.

After all, the recession ended in November 2001 with an unemployment rate at 5.5% and yet the unemployment rate did not peak until June 2003, at 6.3%. The recession ended in March 1991 when the jobless rate was 6.8% and it did not peak until June 1992, at 7.8%. In both cases, the unemployment rate peaked well more than a year after the recession technically ended. The 2001 cycle was a tech capital stock deflation; the 1991 cycle was the Savings & Loan debacle; this past cycle was an asset deflation and credit collapse of epic proportions. And economists think that the unemployment rate is in the process of cresting now? Just remember it is the same consensus community that predicted at the beginning of 2008 that the jobless rate would peak out below 6% this cycle. Thanks for coming out.

Dollar’s Days as the World’s Reserve Currency Are Far From Over

Via The Economist:

Worries about the dollar’s dominance of the global monetary system are not new. But debate about replacing the beleaguered dollar, whose trade-weighted value has dropped by 11.5% since its peak in March 2009, has resurfaced in the wake of a global financial and economic crisis that began in America. China and Russia, which have huge reserves that are mainly dollar denominated, have talked about shifting away from the greenback. India changed the composition of its reserves by buying 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF.

None of this threatens the dominance of the dollar yet, particularly as a dramatic shift out of the currency would be damaging to the countries (such as China) that hold a huge amount of dollar-denominated assets. But a new paper by economists at the IMF, released on Wednesday November 11th, acknowledges that the global crisis has reignited the debate about anchoring the world’s monetary system on one country’s currency.

Some say that America’s role as the principal issuer of the global reserve currency gives it an unfair advantage. America has a unique ability to borrow from foreigners in its own currency, and wins when the dollar depreciates, since its assets are mainly in foreign currency and its liabilities in dollars. By one estimate America enjoyed a net capital gain of around $1 trillion from the gradual depreciation of the dollar in the years before the crisis.

In a sense the world is hostage to America’s ability to maintain the value of the dollar. But as the IMF points out, the currency’s primacy arises at least partly because China and other emerging countries have chosen to accumulate dollar reserves. The depth of America’s financial markets and the country’s open capital account have made the dollar attractive. So some of the advantage has been earned.

But large and persistent surpluses in countries like China mean continued demand for American assets, reducing the need for fiscal adjustment by either country. This, in turn, has contributed to the build-up of the macroeconomic imbalances that many blame for the financial crisis.

Read the full article here

Mauldin: Elements of Deflation

Via John Mauldin’s Thoughts From the Frontline:

One of the advantages of travel is that it gives you time away from the tyranny of the computer to think. (Am I the only one who feels like I am drinking information through a fire hose?) But getting the information is important too, as it gives you something to think about. And I have been thinking a lot lately about deflation.

I get asked at almost every venue where I stop, whether I think we will see inflation, or deflation. And I answer, “Yes.” And I am not trying to be funny. I think the primary forces in the developed world now are deflationary. When asked if I don’t think that the Fed monetizing debt of all kinds won’t eventually be inflationary, I answer, “We better hope so!”

Let’s quickly summarize some of the ideas from the last few months of this letter. Just as water is made up of two parts hydrogen to one part oxygen, so deflation has its own elemental structure.

The first element is Rising Unemployment. There has never been a sustained inflationary period without wage inflation. Wages are basically flat and falling. With 9.8% unemployment, 7% underemployed (temporary), and another 3-4% off the radar screen because they are so discouraged they are not even looking for jobs, and thus are not counted as unemployed (who made up these rules?), it is hard to see how wage inflation is in our near future.

Think about this. Only a few years ago, less than 1 in 16 Americans was unemployed or underemployed. Today it is 1 in 5. That is a staggering, overwhelming statistic. Mind-numbing.

Keynes said that you should stimulate the economy in recessions in order to bring back consumer spending. That is not going to happen this time. As my friends at GaveKal point out, this time we will have to have an Austrian (economic) recovery, or a business-spending recovery. My argument will be, when I am with them in Dallas in December at their conference, “Where are we going to get business-investment spending when banks aren’t lending and capacity utilization is at an all-time low?” This, of course, leads the Keynesians to jump in and say, “The government has to step up and jump-start consumption!” Which means more debt. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

The next element of deflation is massive Wealth Destruction. Two bear markets and a housing market collapse have put the American consumer on the ropes. And the next bear market will bring him to the canvas.

Then we have Reduced Borrowing and Lending, as consumers are paying down debt and banks are reducing their lending. Both are necessary in a credit crisis-caused recession. Bank lending is basically back to where it was two years ago, and shows no sign off rebounding. Banks, as I have written, are buying US government debt in an effort to shore up their balance sheets. Lending to small business, the real engine of job creation, is sadly decreasing each month. (See graph below.)

Next up in our elemental list we have Decreased Final Demand and its counterpart Increased Savings. Although the savings rate has come back down to 3% from 6% a few months ago, almost every expectation is that it will rise over the next 3-5 years back up to the 9% level where it was only 20 years ago. The psyche of the American consumer has been permanently seared. Consumption and savings habits are being changed as I write.

And of course we must address the element of Low Capacity Utilization. While capacity utilization is rebounding, it is still lower than at any time since the data has been collected, other than the last few months. It is hard to see where businesses are going to get pricing power, when not only US but world capacity utilization is still extremely low. The chart below is not the stuff that inflation is made of.

And let’s just quickly throw in Massive Deleveraging and $2 trillion in Bank Losses and a Very Weak Housing Market. Which brings us to a Slowing Velocity of Money.

As I have written on several occasions, prices are a function of the amount of money times the velocity of money. If the velocity of money is slowing, the amount of money can rise without bringing about inflation. It is a delicate balance, but nonetheless the hyperventilation in some circles about the coming hyperinflation is, well, overinflated. Simplistic. Economically naive.

The Fed is going to do what it takes to bring about inflation (in my opinion). But they will not monetize US government debt beyond what they have already agreed to. If they need to “print money” to fight deflation, they can buy mortgage or credit-card or other forms of private debt, which have the convenience of being self-liquidating. Read the speeches of the Fed presidents and governors. I can’t imagine these people will recklessly monetize US debt. You don’t get to their level without having a stiff backbone. (Yes, I know the gold bugs will call me terminally naive. We will have to wait to see who is right. Peter Schiff, care to make a bet on this one?)

Bernanke warned Congress again last week about rising deficits. Watch the deficit rhetoric coming from the Fed after the next two governors are appointed next year, side by side with Bernanke’s reappointment. There will be a line drawn in the sand. Some in Congress will not be happy, but my bet is that the Fed will maintain its independence. If they do not, then my recent letters will prove far too optimistic (and many of you protest my rather less-than-positive suggestion of a double-dip recession). But I must admit I cannot imagine that happening. And there are not enough votes in Congress to change that independent status. There is a day of reckoning coming with the US debt. And thank God for that.

Bottom line: The Fed will do what it takes to keep us from deflation. They will deal with the problems of the ensuing inflation. I wrote six years ago that the best outcome from all the easy monetary policy and budget deficits would be stagflation. I see no need to change that assessment. I am not happy with stagflation, but as I came into my young adult life in the ’70s (see below), I know that we can deal with that. The far more worrisome prospect is continued trillion-dollar deficits.

Read the full newsletter here

The Rumours of the Dollar’s Death Are Much Exaggerated

Via Martin Wolf in FT.com:

The dollar’s correction is not just natural; it is helpful. It will lower the risk of deflation in the US and facilitate the correction of the global “imbalances” that helped cause the crisis. I agree with a forthcoming article by Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics that “huge inflows of foreign capital to the US facilitated the over-leveraging and underpricing of risk”.* Even those who are sceptical of this agree that the US needs export-led growth.

Finally, what can replace the dollar? Unless and until China removes exchange controls and develops deep and liquid financial markets – probably a generation away – the euro is the dollar’s only serious competitor. At present, 65 per cent of the world’s reserves are in dollars and 25 per cent in euros. Yes, there could be some shift. But it is likely to be slow. The eurozone also has high fiscal deficits and debts. The dollar will exist 30 years from now; the euro’s fate is less certain.

Read the full article here

A Fundamental Confusion About the Nature of Wealth

Via The Economist:

People nevertheless use the stockmarket as a barometer of economic health. So a rise in equity markets can be (and has been) seen by governments and central bankers as evidence that the economy is headed in the right direction. That can lead to policy mistakes, such as a lax monetary stance, and further irrational exuberance.

Housing is more complicated than the stockmarket since people get utility from their homes (shelter, relaxation) while simultaneously treating them as assets. Even so, a rise in house prices that outpaces GDP growth does not make a society richer. Instead, all that is achieved is a transfer of wealth from first-time buyers to retirees exiting the property market.

In theory house prices can rise faster than GDP for a while if citizens decide to devote more of their incomes to housing services (for example, they may prefer a bigger flat to a bigger car). In practice it is hard to disentangle such structural shifts from the speculation that is prominent in all property booms.

It is the link between speculation and asset prices that explains this crisis. The ability to borrow money to buy assets fuelled the rise in asset prices. And the wealth effect of higher prices persuaded those in English-speaking countries to borrow money to sustain consumption.

Not long ago the BBC transmitted a programme about credit-card use. One man said he felt “wealthier” because he was given a credit-card limit of £5,000 ($8,000). Of course, once he used the card he was poorer. Not only did he have to repay the £5,000, but he had to service a double-digit interest rate as well. Similarly those who buy an overvalued asset with borrowed money have not made themselves richer but poorer.

Read the full article here

David Rosenberg on Deflation

Rosenberg on the deflation question:

The question is when will we ever move from deflation to inflation. Everyone looks at the Fed’s bloated balance sheet but the problem is that the reserves the central bank has created are sitting as cash on banking sector balance sheets and not being re-circulated into net new credit creation which suggests that velocity is still contracting. Not only is velocity contracting, but so are the broad monetary aggregates.

From a labour market standpoint, there cannot be inflation without accelerating wages, and the economy is now operating at a level that is equivalent to 10 million jobs short of full-employment. So basically, what this means is that we are anywhere from five to 10 years away from seeing any sustained increase in inflation. Indeed, the article on page A2 of today’s WSJ cites a Rutgers study suggesting that we will not see 5% on the unemployment rate again until the end of 2017; Global Insights has a 5.75% jobless rate occurring no sooner than 2019 (see It Will Be Years Before Lost Jobs Return – and Many Never Will).

In turn, this implies that the chances that we get to $83 on S&P operating EPS, which the equity market is in effect now discounting a doubling from current levels, could take at least that long to occur (five to 10 years). Again, this means that income-focused investment strategies are going to remain critical in terms of generating adequate real risk-adjusted returns for the foreseeable future.

To repeat, the employment/population ratio (the “employment rate”) has fallen to a quarter-century low of 58.8%; it peaked at 63.4% in 2007. To get back to a cycle high, we need to create more than 10 million jobs. Before that happens, deflationary pressures are going to trump whatever inflationary risks arise from the Fed, Congress and the White House.

The last time the ratio was this low was back in December 1983. Back then, household debt per capita was $9,900; today it is six times larger at $58,000. At the margin, one has to wonder what is going to be paid for first. The debt-service payments coming out of the paycheck are looking increasingly vulnerable. Default rates are extremely likely to worsen for the foreseeable future; groceries will not be sacrificed; however, credit will.

THE U.S. CONSUMER IS IN HUNKER-DOWN MODE

While thrift is still considered a ‘bad thing’ by most economists who crave a consumer-led revival, we would be happy to open that for debate. It would be much more heartening to see a revival fuelled by capital investment but when over one-third of manufacturing capacity is sitting idle, that may be a stretch; and considering that exports comprise little more than 10% of GDP, the foreign sector is hardly going to be adding a whole lot of torque to the GDP data, at least over the intermediate term. Looks like we are left with government.

This secular frugality theme was on our minds when we saw Flat Holiday Sales? Retailers Say They’ll Take It on page B1 of the Saturday NYT. Is this what a 65% surge in the S&P retailing index from the lows has priced in? A flat sales growth at the most important time of the year. And this would be flat over a 2.0% YoY decline in 2008, which was the weakest holiday showing in 40 years. A holiday study just published by Nielsen found that 85% of Americans are going to be spending the same or cutting back this year compared to what was the worst holiday season since the late 1960s. This is incredible and shows how the near-60% surge in the equity market over the past five months has been totally divorced from economic reality.

The NYT article hit home because it concluded that “people are also continuing to nest in their homes.” We were on top of this about two years ago. And here we are, and the article says that the best-selling item this holiday shopping season is expected to be – get this – “cookware and other kitchen sundries.” Can there be any worse news for the restaurant sector? Husbands are going to be buying their wives a new roasting pan for Christmas and wives are going to be giving their hubbies a fryer.

Luxury goods are expected to fare poorly (jewellery, sporting goods, vacations), and it looks like we may see some very deep discounting in the apparel space (NPD Group is calling for a 4-5% YoY decline this year – see Sales Hanging on By a Thread on page A8 of the Investor’s Business Daily). Ditto for toys, the specials are starting early – Wal-Mart is bringing back its $10 toy section back to all its stores and we’re not even close to Halloween yet. Moody’s reported last week that the holiday shopping period “may be more promotional than anticipated, as consumers have learned to delay shopping in anticipation of higher markdowns”. Now that is definitely a deflationary mindset.

David Rosenberg on Unemployment

Rosie (of Gluskin Sheff) shares his insights on unemployment:

In the last three months, the Household survey shows that civilian employment has plunged 1.33 million. At the time of the end of the 2001 recession, the three-month rally was -3,000 – we hadn’t even entered the jobless recovery at that point. There has never been a time, ever, when a recession ended during a span when the economy lost 1.33 million jobs. So all the calls that the recession is over may have been a tad premature. If the jobs data are correct, and the recession is in fact not over, this entire 60% rally is at risk of unravelling.

There were absolutely no redeeming features in the data. The private nonfarm diffusion index sank to 31.9 in September from 34.9 in August (the manufacturing diffusion index fell to 22.9 from 28.3 in August) which means that for every company adding to their staff loads, more than two are cutting back. The labour force contracted by 571,000 and has plunged now by 1.1 million since May. That again is a sign of the labour market seizing up, which is very disturbing when you consider all the government efforts to stem the tide last quarter – from housing subsidies, to cash-for-clunkers, to mortgage modifications.

The fact that initial jobless claims have peaked and rolled over – modestly by historical standards – tells only half the story which is firings. It is so painfully obvious from the data what is lacking most, is new hiring, especially in the small business sector which accounts for half of the job creation in the United States. The average duration of unemployment rose to 26.2 weeks – a half year! – from 24.9 weeks in August; the median spiked to 17.3 weeks from 15.4. It is so difficult now to find a job that a record 36% of the ranks of those unemployed have been searching with futility now for at least six months. In “normal” recessions since 1950, this ratio peaked at just over 20%. It is nearly double that today. In number terms, we are talking about 5.4 million Americans who have been out of work – but looking – for at least six months. This is troubling.

The U6 measure of the unemployment rate, which is the most inclusive definition of the labour force and takes into account the fact that we have a record 9 million people working part-time because they have been pushed off full-time payrolls, hit a new high of 17.0% in September from 16.8% in August. The gap between this rate and the ‘official’ rate of 9.8% is at a record of seven percentage points. The historical norm is closer to four percentage points and so the concept of mean reversion – Bob Farrell’s first market rule to remember – suggests that the unemployment rate is going to be setting new highs for the post-WWII era before too long (the prior high was 10.8% in November-December of 1982). So the chances that we see a 13% peak unemployment rate this cycle is far from a ludicrous proposition at this point; and just in time for the mid-term elections.

The index of aggregate hours worked, which combines hours worked with the number of bodies at work, seemed to be carving out a bottom in July and August; however, it was a false bottom because this critical ingredient into GDP fell 0.5% in September, to stand at its lowest level in six years. For Q3, aggregate hours worked actually contracted at a 3.0% annual rate, so basically, what is keeping the economy afloat is continued strong productivity gains. But productivity growth alone cannot possibly lead the economy into a sustainable recovery — labour input at some point is going to have to kick in. For Q3, aggregate hours worked actually contracted at a 3% annual rate so basically, what is keeping the economy afloat, is continued strong productivity gains. But productivity growth alone cannot possibly lead the economy into a sustainable recovery, labour input at some point is going to have to kick in.

Take note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also announced a preliminary estimate regarding the benchmark revisions that get published every February and they suggest an additional 824,000 jobs were lost in the year to March 2009, which would put the cumulative decline at over 8.0 million (versus 7.2 million currently, which, even in percent terms – down 5.2%, is the worst in 64 years).

Many of these jobs are never coming back, either. The share of the unemployed who are not on layoff is at record 54.3% as of September. In prior recessions, this ratio would barely pierce the 40% mark. In number terms, we are talking about 8.5 million Americans who have lost their job due to permanent shutdowns, a figure that is double what you typically see at the peak of the recession.

Full-time employment is down 10.5 million from the late-2007 peak. Many of these folks have lost their job permanently; but over the past two years 2.8 million have managed to at least find part-time work. Even with this surge in part-timers, total employment relative to the size of the population sagged to a quarter-century low of 58.8% in September.

Looking at the demographic split, we can see the new game that families are playing. Parents are working longer to keeping their kids out of a job – but look at the bright side, at least their education will be paid for. Amazingly, employment among those 55 years of age and older rose 69,000 in September while all the other age cohorts combined lost an aggregate 854,000 On a YoY basis, the older age category is up 1.4% while everyone else is down 5.5% so it is so painfully obvious that the aging boomers are either coming into the workforce or are not leaving their jobs as early as their predecessor did – and this in turn is creating a huge unemployment headache for the younger generation because the youth unemployment rate has jumped to a record 26%.

Don’t Fear the Inflation, Goldman Says

Via FT Alphaville:

Goldman Sachs is putting an end to the deflation vs inflation debate, once and for all!

In a 30-page research note out on Wednesday, the bank comes down firmly on the side of (moderate) deflation in the near-term.

Here, GS analyst Andrew Tilton says, is why:

• Inflation is already low, with the core CPI down to 1.4% on a year-overyear basis and the overall CPI in deflation territory.

• Excess capacity in the economy is huge, probably at least 6% of GDP and possibly at its highest level since the Great Depression.

• Spare capacity is likely to persist for years [see below table]. While the financial crisis and recession probably have reduced the economy’s production capacity somewhat, we do not see strong evidence for persistently lower growth of capacity going forward. Even if we assume substantially above-trend real GDP growth of, say, 5% per year, it will take more than three years to get back to equilibrium in the labor market and two in the manufacturing sector. Our own assumptions of a somewhat slower recovery suggest it could well take more than five years to reach equilibrium in the labor market and nearly as long in housing.

• Monetary policy is arguably too tight despite a near-zero funds rate and unconventional easing. Our own calculations using estimated Taylor rule parameters, as well as those in recent research from the San Francisco Fed, point to an `appropriate’ funds rate of -5% or below.
  

• The default path of current policy is for removal of stimulus. Fed asset purchase programs are scheduled to end within the next several months and its balance sheet will begin to shrink after that point, while the growth impact of fiscal stimulus is already peaking.

Nevertheless, Goldman’s Tilton gets why investors are worried about inflation, and the bank itself is not oblivious to the possibility, given the massive unconventional fiscal and monetary policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve. In fact, Tilton says, there are a few inflationary warnings signs investors should be looking out for.

Continue reading the article here